1. What is Vegas Odds to Probability Conversion?

The Vegas odds to probability conversion calculates the implied probability of an event occurring based on the odds offered by bookmakers. This helps determine if a bet has value by comparing the implied probability to your own assessment of the true probability.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses the probability formula:

Where:

• \( odds \) — The Vegas odds ratio (e.g., 3.5 for 7:2 odds)
• \( p \) — The implied probability (0 to 1)

Explanation: The formula converts the odds ratio into a probability between 0 and 1, which can then be expressed as a percentage.

3. Importance of Probability Calculation

Details: Understanding implied probability helps bettors identify value bets where the bookmaker's odds imply a lower probability than the true likelihood of an event occurring.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Enter the Vegas odds as a positive number (ratio). For example, for 3:1 odds enter 3, for 7:2 odds enter 3.5.

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What's the difference between American and decimal odds?
A: This calculator uses decimal odds format (ratio). For American odds (+200), convert first (+200 = 3.0 in decimal).

Q2: What does a 60% probability mean?
A: It means the event is expected to occur 6 out of 10 times based on the odds. A fair payout would be 1.67:1.

Q3: Why is the implied probability usually higher than true probability?
A: Bookmakers add a margin (vigorish) to ensure profit, making implied probabilities sum to more than 100%.

Q4: How can I use this for betting strategy?
A: Compare implied probability to your own probability estimate. Bet when your estimate is higher than the implied probability.

Q5: What's a good probability threshold for betting?
A: Typically look for situations where your estimated probability is at least 5-10% higher than the implied probability.